Prediction markets have grown 18× in trading volume since 2023, and weather is the fastest-expanding vertical. The reason is structural: weather is the rare event class with abundant high-quality data, daily settlement, and no insider information. Every actor has the same NOAA/ECMWF feeds; the edge is purely in how you interpret them.
Polymarket alone launched 340% more weather markets in 2026 vs 2025. Kalshi, Manifold and Polymarket's competitors are racing to add coverage. The result: more liquidity, more contracts, more edges per week.
For automated operators this is a tailwind. More markets mean more independent bets, which means lower variance for the same expected return. Volume on flagship US contracts now exceeds $50M weekly — comparable to mid-cap equity options.
