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A single forecast is a guess with a confidence interval you can't see. The Weather Channel app shows one number; the market reflects an ensemble of dozens. That gap is your opportunity.
The bot ingests 138 individual model runs every day across 11 sources, then collapses them into 4 calibrated ensemble probabilities. Each ensemble is weighted by historical hit-rate at that station, at that forecast horizon, in that season. The output isn't a temperature — it's a probability distribution.
The market trades the median. We trade the tails. When the ensemble shows a 28% chance of temperature exceeding a threshold but Polymarket prices it at 15%, that's a measurable, repeatable edge — and it appears 30-40 times per week across the active markets.
